The index tracks financial stress across Bitcoin user cohorts. It draws on on-chain data, ETF flows, derivatives activity, and liquidity metrics. A score of 57.4 puts it in the “high impact” zone on a scale of up to 100.
That stress level has appeared before periods of sharp price declines. CEX(dot)IO pointed to similar readings in 2018 and 2022, both of which preceded price drops of more than 25%. The January 2026 reading was the last time the index climbed this fast.
Realized losses among long-term holders last week were the worst since 2023. CEX(dot)IO described the shift as a divergence between price action and on-chain conviction. The firm said comparable patterns appeared in mid-2018 and mid-2022 before significant price drops.
Capital flows have also turned negative. Daily stablecoin net flows averaged inflows of $250 million earlier in March. That figure swung to outflows of $292 million last week. ETFs and miners also shifted from accumulation to selling over the same period.
One factor has held steady. On-chain data shows Bitcoin holders are not depositing coins to exchanges in large volumes. Mass exchange deposits are typically a sign of capitulation, and that behavior has not yet appeared.
Originally written by: Ayesha Aziz
Source: Coin Market Cap
Published on: 30 March 2026
Link to original article: Nearly Half of All Bitcoin Supply Now Held at a Loss, Index Shows
